23/24 Player Profile: Darnell Nurse

Last Year

Last season kicked off the first of Darnell Nurse’s mega contract extensions he signed with the Oilers for 8 years x $9.25 million. When Nurse was coming off his entry-level deal, the Oilers were in a bit of a cap crunch. He had just put up his best season to date with 6-20-26 in 82 GP and was rising up the depth charts, poised to be the Oilers’ number one defenseman if he kept progressing. The Oilers didn’t have room for a long-term extension, so they gave him a bridge deal of 2 years.

Fast forward to the end of his bridge deal, February 2022, just before the world shut down because of Covid, before the world knew the salary cap wouldn’t increase for the next 3 years. The Oilers, once again (Notice a theme here), strapped for cash and couldn’t lock down Nurse to a long-term extension, had to bridge Nurse a second time for 2 seasons. At this point, this seemed to many to be a reasonable contract for your team’s #1 D-man, though many didn’t see Nurse as quite that yet. He still needed something extra to be considered a true #1 rather than just a 1st pairing D-man. Though the contract was reasonable, this meant Nurse had two years to bolster his stock, solidifying himself as the Oilers’ number one guy and cashing in big time.

The Oilers finally have a little wiggle room in the offseason, and Nurse’s bridge deal is up; it’s time to cash in. The stars couldn’t have aligned better for Nurse and worse for the Oilers’ cap. Just mere weeks before Nurse signed his contract, Seth Jones (picked 3 picks earlier than Nurse in the 2013 draft) signed an 8-year, $9.5 million contract. He had better offensive numbers throughout his career up to that point, but Nurse had stronger defensive numbers, and they were playing a similar first-pairing role for their respective clubs.

Not even a week after Jones signed for big money, Zach Werenski, a first-pairing defenseman for the Blue Jackets, who was scoring at a very similar rate as Nurse, signed for 6 years x $9.58 million. This set the market in stone for what Nurse was about to receive. Two players of very similar pedigree set the market, and then there was not much else GM Ken Holland could do. If he had signed before the other two, maybe he would have been able to set the market lower, but that wasn’t the case, and that’s where Nurse sits now, at $9.25 million.

That’s a long workaround to get to the point of how Nurse’s year went last year. He’s signed to this big-money contract, paid to be a stud #1 defenseman, and Oilers fans are holding him to the coals to perform as such. There was a lot of weight put on his shoulders last season as this contract kicked in.

There were many nights throughout the season when his cap hit was the main topic of conversation, usually after a bad giveaway or a couple of minuses on the scoresheet following a tough loss for the team. Not all of it can be laid at Nurse’s feet, though. For most of the year, he was paired with Cody Ceci, who, by all accounts, did not have a great season. Nurse spent a majority of his time trying to cover for those defensive lapses, which made it look like Nurse was the culprit out of position.

The Oilers were giving Nurse too big of a workload than he could handle, without the proper support on defense, so it looked like he was the one causing the failures of the Oilers’ blue line. Enter Mattias Ekholm, acquired at the trade deadline. Ekholm provided another defenseman who could suppress opposition offense and take some of the load off Nurse, allowing him to perform at a higher level defensively. Prior to Ekholm’s acquisition, Nurse was giving up goals at a rate of 2.72 GA/60, not what you would want from a #1; that put Nurse in the defensive range of players such as Sean Walker (LAK), Jonathan Kovacevic (MTL), and Connor Murphy (CHI). Not great company when you’re being paid big bucks to be a number one defenseman responsible for shutting down the NHL’s elite players night in and night out.

With the addition of Ekholm, Nurse’s workload was lightened, and he was able to achieve a GA/60 of 2.39, which, over the course of a full season, would place him in the company of Alex Pietrangelo (VGK), Dougie Hamilton (NJD), and Bowen Byram (COL). A much better group, comparable to top pairing defensemen who are relied upon for offense more than defense but still need to face elite opponents.

Nurse finished the season with 12-31-43 in 82GP, setting a new career high in points. He did most of his scoring at even strength, with limited time on the power play due to Tyson Barrie’s presence on the #1 unit and the dominance that unit had, never giving room for anyone else. After the Barrie trade, the PP reins were handed over to Evan Bouchard, who actually helped improve the PP.

This Year

What can we expect from Darnell this year heading into the second year of his mega deal? Part of it may depend on how well his partner Cody Ceci rebounds this season, though with the addition of Ekholm over a whole season, Nurse-Ceci should be able to have a few reduced minutes to help settle their game and reduce the big mistakes that bled some goals at very inopportune times last season.

Nurse is going to want to prove that he is, in fact, the Oilers’ best Dman, ahead of what is now actually a competition for that title between himself, Ekholm, and Bouchard. I believe that competition will drive Nurse to have his best offensive season of his career, and he’ll post much-improved defensive numbers as well. Making the contract look closer to fair value than it did the day it was signed or even than it did at the end of last season.

Power play time is going to be hard to come by for Nurse, as Bouchard assumes control of the 1st unit, there’s not much room for Nurse. He is still 2nd in line for PP duties on defense if Bouchard happens to go down. Or if Bouchard is out of gas from a previous shift or at the end of the PP, Nurse will get the odd look patrolling the blue line.

Nurse should have a big role on the PK though; last year, he was second in SH TOI, averaging 2:54 TOI per game, 1 second less than Cody Ceci. I think with a full season of Ekholm, Nurse’s time will still remain high on the PK; Ceci’s will drop. I think the biggest change on the PK is that it will get better and let in fewer goals, helping Nurse shake some of the disappointment from fans of last season, where they would see a lot of glaring mistakes. Ekholm’s calming presence will help calm the ship and improve Nurse’s overall goal differential.

Even strength is where Nurse is going to work next season. I believe he’ll have a bit less time against opposition elites with a more balanced defense squad around him, allowing him to put up better offensive numbers throughout the season. I would expect his GF% to increase year over year. Last year, Nurse finished the year with a 52.14 GF% at 5-on-5. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nurse can push that number to 53%, which may not seem like much but adds up to a few more goals going the Oilers’ way over the season. This could be the difference between a first-place division finish and a second-place division finish.

Projection

Nurse has a strong year at even strength, gets a little bit of time on the PP and finishes the year with 14-35-49 in 82 GP.

Next Up

Evan Bouchard