23/24 Player Profile: Evan Bouchard

Last Year

Bouchard continued building a solid NHL resume in his second full season in the NHL with the Edmonton Oilers. He put up 8 goals, 32 assists, and 40 points in 82 games as a second-year defenseman. Though his rookie numbers were slightly better with 12 goals and 43 points in his rookie season.

Bouchard’s most common defense partner last season was Philip Broberg. The pair often suited up in 3rd pair minutes together or got put together in the common 11-7 rotation that Coach Jay Woodcroft often employed. They spent 333:43 minutes together, outscoring the opposition 19-18 at even strength. The pair worked for the most part but did have their share of wobbles as the two youngsters were both trying to find their way in the NHL. They did better together than perhaps the eye test proved them to be throughout the regular season together. They sometimes would make some very rookie mistakes that looked so obvious and got fans all riled up. Looking at their numbers together to end the season, they actually performed rather admirably together. Sporting a 57 CF%, meaning 57% of the shots on net while they were on the ice together were going the Oilers’ way. They also sported a 51 GF%, meaning they were on for more goals than they were on for goals against, which is another great point for the two of them.

After the trade deadline, the Oilers picked up Mattias Ekholm as Bouchard’s new primary partner. Did they slow down as a pair compared to being paired with Broberg? Absolutely not. The pairing of Bouchard-Ekholm, in 289:40 minutes together at 5 on 5, posted a 59% CF, two points higher than with Broberg. They also posted a stunning 77.14% GF, being on the ice together for 27 goals for and only 8 goals against in 21 games played together. They helped the Oilers produce more than a goal per game at 5 on 5, while holding the opposition to close to 0.33 goals per game against them! These are absolutely astonishing numbers that should regress a bit over the course of a full season together.

Without the weight of his partners either boosting or detracting, how did Bouchard finish last season? Well, at 5-on-5, Bouchard finished the season with a 56.95% CF, all up arrows there. He also finished with a 53.66% GF at 5-on-5. So even though the detractors of Bouchard’s game knock his defensive abilities, which may be true, the Oilers are using him in a position where he is outscoring the opposition in the toughest game state (5-on-5) by a wide margin. Great news for Oilers fans.

We haven’t even talked about the PP yet. After the Barrie trade near the trade deadline, Bouchard was tasked with taking over the blue line duties on the Oilers’ record-setting power play. What exactly did Bouchard do to that PP? He made it better. The Oilers began scoring at a higher rate on the PP with Bouchard than they ever did with Barrie.

So the man is scoring 5 out of 5. He’s scoring on the power play. The man can’t be stopped. What’s in store for him?

This Season

At even strength last season, Bouchard scored 6 goals and had 20 assists for a total of 26 points. The majority of his 40 points came from even strength play.

For much of the season, he bounced between the 2nd and 3rd pairs, being lined up with Broberg and Kulak as common partners. In those 61 games before the arrival of Ekholm, Bouchard had 3 goals, 12 assists, and 15 points at even strength, which is good for an average of 0.25 points per game at even strength.

After the arrival of Ekholm, Bouchard scored 3-8-11 in 21 GP at even strength, good for 0.52 PPG at even strength. There was a significant change in Bouchard’s deployment upon the Ekholm trade. He now receives 1st/2nd pair minutes compared to 2nd/3rd pair minutes. With a much more steady and well-rounded partner, Bouchard no longer has to be the best player on the pair. This allows him to open up offensively and post some staggering numbers.

I don’t expect Bouchard to maintain those numbers for a whole season, but he could get awfully close. Projecting him to score 0.45 PPG at even strength isn’t out of the question, which would give him 40 points over an 82-game schedule. Breaking down his splits to be similar, with more assists than goals, we may be looking at a season where Bouchard hits 9-31-40 at even strength alone next season for the Orange and Blue.

Now let’s look at some power play numbers. Last season, after taking over for Barrie, Bouchard scored 2-6-8 on the PP in 21 GP, which is good for 0.38 PPG on the PP. If we project a similar number because the Oilers’ power play shows no signs of slowing down (considering they are coming back with the exact same crew), Bouchard, with an estimated 0.35 PPG on the PP, could project for 29 points on the PP over 82 games. This would be somewhere in the range of 7-22-29.

Bouchard, due to his offensive instincts, often neglects the defensive side of the game. The Oilers have other players hired to fill that role on the PK as well. I would expect very little time for Bouchard on the PK, so he probably won’t find many points in that area of the game.

This leads us to…

Projection

Bouchard is an important piece of the lineup for the entire season. He’ll project for 16-53-69 in 82 GP, edging oh so close to that 70-point plateau, which may have to wait until the year after.

Next Up

Mattias Ekholm