23/24 Player Profile: Cody Ceci

Last Year

Cody Ceci finished last season with 1-14-15 in 80 GP for the Oilers. Outside of his rookie season and his one season in Toronto, this was his lowest point total of his career. Usually, he puts up anywhere between 17-26 points per year. So not egregiously far off his normal totals, but many were hoping for a bit more from Ceci after scoring 28 points the year before for the Oilers. Scoring only 1 goal over the course of a full season is always tough on a player, and Ceci is no exception, though he has only ever hit 10 goals once in his career, I’m sure he would’ve wanted more than just the one. Especially considering he was being counted on to play on the Oilers’ top defensive pairing for most of the season.

Ceci finished the season 3rd in average TOI for Oilers defensemen, behind only Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekholm (acquired at the deadline). So for most of the season, Ceci was managing the second-most minutes of any defenseman for the Oilers. Ceci averaged 17:08 ES TOI throughout the regular season and 2:56 on the Penalty Kill. Ceci spent virtually zero time on the PP. This puts into perspective the position the Oilers are trying to use Ceci in. The Oilers are trying to utilize Ceci as a defense-first responsible defenseman who can go out on the ice at any time and shut down the opposition’s elite players.

The Oilers also showed what they wanted to get out of Ceci, as he had the highest percentage of his shifts (off of a face-off) starting in the defensive zone out of any regular Oiler (20.7%). Outside of Desharnais, Ceci started the least amount of shifts in the offensive zone. He is on the team to shut down the opponent and provide defense-first hockey.

How did Ceci fare in shutting down the opponent? By the eye test, Ceci struggled, especially early in the season. He was playing too high up in the lineup and was getting exposed on a semi-regular basis, which became very obvious when viewing games and hurt his stock among the Oilers faithful.

Ceci finished the year with only a 43% CF (Corsi For), meaning the opposition was putting pucks towards the net more often than the Oilers were going the other way throughout the season. It’s tough to nail this directly on Ceci because, as mentioned earlier, most of his shifts started in the D-Zone. This means the opposition was likely to get the puck and start firing at the net before he had a chance to clear the zone and send pucks the other way. He was also on the ice for a majority of Edmonton’s penalty killing, where you don’t get a chance to go the other way and shoot. It’s a lot of defending all the time.

His GF% finished at only 44%, likely due to the same defensive zone starts and high PK TOI. If we look at his even-strength numbers though, we may get a better picture of Ceci’s season.

At even strength, Ceci posted a 50% CF, meaning he was essentially even in terms of pucks going the right way for the Oilers while he was on the ice. As a top pairing defenseman, one may expect more, but he didn’t allow a significant number of goals against for the Oilers. Furthermore, his GF% at even strength was 48%, indicating that more goals were scored against the Oilers while Ceci was on the ice compared to the goals they scored.

A tough year for Ceci last year, can he bounce back and make a meaningful contribution to this Oilers team?

This Year

Ekholm will also provide Ceci with some support on the PK. He’ll go from the Oilers’ number one penalty killing defenseman to the Oilers’ number two penalty killing defenseman, lowering his PK TOI from almost 3 minutes per game to close to 2:30 per game.

All this time getting put in a more proper position for Ceci to succeed should help him establish himself as a better defenseman. Putting defense first is not what Ceci was drafted for when he went 15th overall in 2012. He could put up points, but as his NHL career has progressed, he’s working hard to change his game and be a reliable defenseman first kind of guy.

Both his CF% and GF% should see rebounds this year. A successful year for Ceci would be to see both those percentages rise just over 50%.

Playing less time against the opposition elites will also allow Ceci to perform better offensively, playing against slightly weaker competition throughout the year. I would suggest that he will score more than 1 goal this year, in addition to his usual 15 or so assists annually.

Projection

Ceci has a rebound year defensively and offensively. 6-15-21 in 82 GP. TOI/G of 19:02.

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Philip Broberg