23/24 Player Profile: Stuart Skinner

Last Year

The man, the myth, the mustache. Was Skinner the savior of the Oilers’ season last year? That might be a stretch, considering you had the (almost) unanimous Hart trophy winner in Connor McDavid leading the team’s charge, flanked by the other two 100-point men in Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Skinner, though, may have been just as important to the success the Oilers had last year as those three men were.

Summer 2022, GM Ken Holland needs a goalie. He goes out into the free agent market to bring in Jack Campbell, who had most recently completed his season with the Maple Leafs with a .914 save percentage. Good starter-worthy numbers, he was supposed to come in and settle the Oilers’ goaltending, allowing Skinner to come into the season as a backup and learn the NHL game in a sheltered, safe environment.

Then that plan cratered almost immediately. We’ll save the Campbell talk for his player profile, all we need to know for now is that with Campbell’s struggles, it meant Skinner was got thrown into battle last season, having to perform his best to keep the Oilers season a float.

How did Skinner do as a rookie goalie in the NHL? Well in total he ended up playing in 50 games for the Edmonton Oilers, about 25-30 more than what the Oilers were expecting going into the season.

In those 50 games, Skinner had a 0.914sv%, which puts him in a tie for 15th in the league among goalies who played 1000 minutes or more last season. Just above league average. As far as starting goalies in the NHL, (goalies who played 40 or more games) skinner ranked 10th in the league. Great numbers in the leagues upper half for a rookie goaltender. Couldn’t ask for much more from a goalie you were counting on to be your backup.

When looking at Goals Against Average, Skinner finished the season with a 2.75 goals against average, good for 17th among starters. Maybe not as ideal of a number in this category, but a lot of that can be placed upon the Oilers style of play and the defence he had in front of him. The Oilers gave up lot’s of shots last year and lot’s of goals. They just managed to outscore most of their problems.

Skinner ended up 2nd place in Calder Trophy voting (rookie of the year) behind Matty Beniers of the Seattle Kraken. By all accounts, Skinner had a heck of a season, if wasn’t able to rise up to the challenge during Campbell’s struggles, we might be talking about an Oilers team that missed the playoffs last season. If McDavid and Draisaitl weren’t allowed to get team MVP, then it for sure would’ve had to go to Skinner last season.

This Season

What should we expect from Skinner this season? In reality, who knows, goalies seem to be one of the worlds greatest mysteries. We can always look to take our best guess at it though.

Last year, Skinner had to play behind a fairly weak team defense, and an even weaker team penalty kill. Until the arrival of Desharnais and Ekholm, which changed the complexion of the Oilers’ defense, allowing them to cut down on the goals against. Having a full season with those guys in the lineup and what seems to be a bigger buy-in based on training camp talk from the rest of the team to committing to win the 2-1 game and buckling down on defense. In reality, Skinner’s job should be easier. I think Jack Campbell will have a bit of a bounce-back season as well, not enough to take the starter’s role back from Skinner, but enough to split the games a bit more evenly, giving Skinner more rest in between games when he needs it. Being a year older and a year more confident should also help Skinner be a better goalie.

The problem however, lies in the rest of the NHL, scoring rates are going up which means goalie sv % is on the down ward trend. I believe that Skinner should be able to closely replicate his .914 sv% this upcoming season.

He’ll take a strong grip on the starters position but the coaches will find ample time for Skinner to rest and recover, relying on Campbell to carry som eof the load in more of a 1A 1B situation than a clean cut starter and back up.

Projection

Skinner players 52 games for the oilers this upcoming season, and posts a .912 sv%. The Oilers team will protect him a little better, he’ll be more consistent, but I think his sv% will drop by 0.02, due to the nature of the game and how much players are scoring these days, he won’t be able to avoid it.

He’ll finish in the top half of the league in sv %, which is exactly what the Oilers need, they don’t need the best goalie in the league they only need average and Skinner will provide them with a little above average.

Next Up

Jack Campbell