23/24 Player Profile: Jack Campbell

Last Year

On July 13, 2022, Jack Campbell signed with the Edmonton Oilers as a free agent, essentially solving the Oilers’ goaltending woes as they moved on from Mikko Koskinen. The Oilers signed Campbell to a 5-year, $5 million contract. Year after year of goaltending woes could be put to bed because Jack had somewhat proved capable of being a starter. He finished the 2021/2022 season with a .914 save percentage. The year before that, also with the Toronto Maple Leafs, he posted a .921 save percentage. Both seasons were above average for a starting goalie. Music to Oilers fans’ ears… or was it.

The signing was not universally loved as people pointed out that in Toronto, he started his season really strong, Vezina caliber even, but tapered off significantly in the back half of the season. A downward trend was something observers were leery of.

If you go look at Campbell’s first season with the Oilers, he was being paid to be their starting goaltender, no doubt about it. Skinner was in place as the backup, hopefully to keep improving his game to maybe one day take over from Campbell. That day came very quickly as Campbell struggled out of the gate and continued to struggle through the middle of the season. He kind of, but not really, rebounded near the end of the season. His saving grace was in the playoffs when he came on in relief of Skinner. He played absolutely fantastic in those 2-3 periods of play. However, it’s not much to be rejoicing about over the course of the season.

Campbell finished his first season as an Edmonton Oiler, playing 36 games and posting a .888 save percentage (SV%). The number of games played (GP) was disappointing for someone who was signed to be a starter, indicating that he was quickly passed by Skinner, who played in 50 GP. More disheartening was his save percentage, which stood at 0.888. This placed Campbell ranked 58th in save percentage among goalies who played at least 1000 minutes or more in the NHL last season. This puts him among the likes of backups such as Mads Soogard (OTT), Colin Delia (VAN), and Eric Comrie (BUF). Not exactly the company you’re looking for when you are getting paid $4 million more than them.

Campbell’s save percentage is only one part of the puzzle when we assess his season. It’s the next piece we look at that really clouds things a little bit from calling his season a complete disaster. In his 36 games played, Campbell’s record was 21-9-4. He had almost twice as many wins as losses. If you’re looking at that record by itself, you could definitely argue that he had a great season. If you prorate that to say 50 games started, more in line with a starter, it would be a record of 30-14-6, a 30-win season, which is a good season in almost anyone’s books.

Even with a decent win loss record Campbell is looking to have a big bounce back season with the Oilers this year.

This Year

If Campbell wants to have a bounce-back season, he is going to have to cut down on the bad goals against. So many times last year, Oilers fans were frustrated when 1 or 2 minutes into the game, Campbell let in a really weak goal, and then the Oilers had to spend the whole game trying to claw their way back into it. Strong starts are what Campbell is going to need if he wants to stick around in Edmonton this year. If he can’t compete, GM Ken Holland would definitely be looking to trade him for some cap relief and replace him with a backup or 1B type goalie for much cheaper.

A successful season for Campbell is one where he begins to rebound and wrestle the starting job back from Stuart Skinner. In order to do that, he is going to need a save percentage north of .900, for sure at the bare minimum. Still in backup goalie territory but out of castaway territory.

Campbell has the tools to bounce back; we’ve seen him have good seasons before. Load management from the coaching staff is going to be key, and Campbell’s mental state will be so important for him going into this season. If he can perform well in his first 5 starts with a save percentage greater than .900 and a winning record to go with it, you could see him having a really good season. However, if his first 5 starts resemble anything like last season, another tough year could be in store for Campbell.

Projection

This might be another tough year for Campbell in net. I think he’ll rebound significantly in the sv% department but he’ll play less games than he did last year. I have Skinner playing 52 GP, that leaves Campbell with the remaining 30 GP.

In those 30 GP, though, Campbell’s save percentage will rebound to a .905. He may not be a bona fide starter, but he will still be in the range of a backup. However, a .905 save percentage is likely all the Oilers really need to win games. They have such a high-octane offense that they can generally outscore their opponents in any given game, even with just average goaltending. That’s what they’ll get from Campbell this season: 30 GP, .905 save percentage.

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