By Eye and Analytics

Through two games this season, both against the Canucks, the Oilers have not looked great. Defensive coverage lacking, goaltending shaky. Has there been any good performances so far? Who has been the best Oiler through two games? Below, I’m going to outline two players who have stood out through the good old eye test, and then we’ll dive in and see who has stood out analytically. We’ll see if they match or if there are some hidden gems hiding anywhere in the Oilers lineup so far this season.

Eye Test

  1. Dylan Holloway

So far, through two games, Dylan Holloway has stood out in a big way as part of an effective line, including his line mates Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod. In that dismal first game of the Oilers’ season, this line stood out by always seeming to be in the offensive zone, creating chances. It is tough to get noticed when your team loses 8-1. Holloway, in particular, stood out by finding his way directly in front of the net for two high-danger scoring chances, where he was able to create space for himself and get a shot on target. Holloway forechecked hard with his line, causing turnovers and cycling the puck well, which tired out the opponents. Holloway brought the same energy in Game 2 against the Canucks, being hard on the forecheck and taking lots of shots/shot attempts. He hasn’t scored yet, but this line is fast and they will start capitalizing on their chances soon. Holloway will be a driver for this line.

2. Leon Drasaitl

He wasn’t as noticeable in game 1, but in game 2, Leon was a dominant force. He was the only Oiler to score in the 8-1 loss, a power play goal, a one-timer close to the goal line, his patented one-timer spot. His goal was a beautiful thing that Oilers fans are going to see a lot of this year. Hopefully, we get to see a lot of it tomorrow against Nashville, whom Draisaitl has historically dismantled every time they play.

Draisaitl showed that he was embarrassed by the game 1 loss as his line came out flying to start the rematch. His line dominated in the offensive zone for the first 40 seconds of the game, causing havoc at every corner before Draisaitl shovelled home a garbage goal behind a sprawled-out Casey DeSmith. Draisaitl’s line continued to apply lots of pressure to the Canucks all game but couldn’t find a way to get the puck in the net at even strength for the rest of the game. Draisaitl did show that he is one of the best players in the game by routinely taking control in the offensive zone, using his body to make space and make plays, and threading the needle with some great passes.

Draisaitl currently has 3 points in 2 games to have a share in the team lead in points, tied with McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins.

Analytically Speaking

Honestly when looking into some of the advanced metrics (Granted I don’t have the knowledge to do a real deep dive, but I can work through some of the basics) I could pick the same to players mentioned above but I want to spread the joy and give two others recognition.

  1. Warren Foegele

On a line with Holloway (mentioned above as a standout) and McLeod, Foegele has quietly gone about his business, putting up all kinds of scoring chances throughout the team’s first two games. Through two games, Foegele leads the Oilers in individual scoring chances, and he also leads the team in individual high-danger scoring chances. He is creating tons of pressure in the offensive zone and has a CF% of 61.90. Things are going in the right direction for Foegele. People may be blaming him for Vancouver’s 3rd goal. The Oilers had just tied the game, and about a minute later, Foegele unleashed a shot that missed the net and wrapped around the boards, releasing Pettersson and Studnicka for a 2-on-0 the other way. I can’t blame Foegele for that. I would’ve obviously liked him to hit the net, but where was the defensive coverage? How do two Canucks get that far past all the defense?

Even though Foegele hasn’t cashed in on any points yet this season, in limited minutes, he has shown a willingness to drive towards the net, create chaos, and generate scoring chances. The coaches have taken notice. Line rushes this morning at practice have Foegele on the 2nd line with RNH at center and Hyman on the other wing. Connor Brown has been dropped down to the third line. Foegele is putting in work and getting rewarded for it. This also seems to mark one of the rare occasions where the Oilers look to have combined the eye test with analytics to make a lineup decision. Usually, the Oilers seem to ignore any sort of analytics.

2. Connor McDavid

Game 1 didn’t go as McDavid would’ve hoped, and that put a chip on his shoulder for the home opener. Just like how Draisaitl came out flying, so did McDavid. Connor had 2 points and should’ve had more; he was all over the ice all night, but his wingers couldn’t cash at 5 on 5. According to Natural Stat Trick, McDavid was on the ice for 27 shots for and only 2 shots against in the home opener. Looking at McDavid’s Corsi (Corsi being all shot attempts – On goal, missed, or blocked), he posted an astounding 54 Corsi For and a measly 4 Corsi against in all game states. McDavid dominated the possession game, yet his line mates couldn’t generate a goal at even strength. That might be a hint as to why coach Woodcroft is moving Draisaitl and McDavid together for Tuesday’s game against Nashville to try and jump-start the 5-on-5 offence.

Despite McDavid’s insane 93.10% CF in game two in all situations, he still lost the goal battle 0-1 at even strength. Out of the two shots against when McDavid was on the ice, one of them was a goal. Most of this should be laid at the feet of the defence and goaltending. Connor did almost everything humanly possible to protect his net, but things just didn’t go his way. If he is to put forth a performance like that again, he is almost guaranteed to win the goals battle. He had an 80.81% xGF in that game. It’s not often you have a number that high and still lose the actual battle. McDavid is in good form; the goals will come. The team is just facing some adversity to start the season. One win, and the boys will begin rolling!

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